Impacts on Arizona
While critics of the new Arizona immigration law predict the state will suffer significant financial losses from its implementation, at this point it appears too early to tell what the long-term impact might actually be. One of the biggest fears among state leaders is the negative effect the measure could have on the state's highly important tourism and convention industries, which make up a major part of Arizona's economy. After Gov. Jan Brewer signed the bill into law in April 2010, numerous U.S. cities (Boston, Columbus, Los Angeles and Seattle, among others) as well as several national ethnic and labor groups (including National Council of La Raza, Asian American Justice Center, Service Employees International Union and the United Food and Commercial Workers International Union) called for economic and travel boycotts of the state. While wide-scale, organized boycotts have been limited, it does appear the state's meeting and convention business has taken a hit. Debbie Johnson, CEO of the Arizona Hotel & Lodging Association, told the Phoenix Business Journal in October that "40 meetings have been nixed since April and calls to Arizona hotels by meeting planners for future bookings are down 40 percent." And, according to a study commissioned by the progressive-leaning Center for American Progress, Arizona has lost $253 million of total economic output from conventions already canceled due to the legislation, and could face an additional $135 million in lost economic output from future convention booking declines.
Supporters of the immigration measure say these estimates are misleading, and economists point out that it's extremely difficult to precisely measure the economic effects of the law because of the many variables and unknowns, particularly now as the overall national economy remains so sluggish. And as reported by the Phoenix Business Journal, some major meetings are still coming to Arizona, including a recent gathering of high-level Google executives and a large Best Buy convention, and the controversy "doesn't seem to be hitting sports and leisure travel as hard."
Another area of concern is the impact that a significant drop-off in legal Mexican visitors could have, especially in the border areas of the state where their spending serves as a major contributor to local economic activity. After the bill became law in April 2010, the Mexican government issued a travel alert for Arizona, warning its citizens they could face harassment as a result of the new measure. According to an August 2010 analysis by the the Phoenix Republic newspaper of U.S. Customs and Border Protection agency data, in the months since the controversy surrounding the law began, total cross-border visits decreased 17 percent compared with the previous period in 2009, while legal entries from Mexico at other Southwest U.S. border points outside Arizona fell by only 7 percent. This amounts to nearly 12,500 fewer people per day making lawful visits to Arizona and spending money in local economies. According to a report issued earlier this year by the University of Arizona's Economic and Business Research Center, the more than 24 million legal visitors who traveled to the state in 2007-08 spent nearly $2.7 billion at stores, restaurants, hotels and entertainment venues, and more than 23,000 Arizona jobs are directly attributable to Mexican visitor spending.
Arizona's Senate, in apparent reaction to lobbying by the state's business community, rejected five immigration bills on March 17. The bills included one to require hospitals to report suspected illegal aliens and another that would have prodded the U.S. Supreme Court to rule that children of illegal immigrants born in this country have no right to automatic citizenship. Republicans control the state Senate 21-9.
In mid-April, Arizona Legislators continued to press for more restrictions on illegal immigration. Meanwhile the Center for American Progress and The Immigration Policy Center released a report that calculates remarkable costs if S.B. 1070 is ever implemented: A 17 percent decrease in employment, the loss of 600,000 jobs and a reduction in state tax revenue by 10 percent. You can read the report, Rising Tide or Shrinking Pie, here.